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The purpose of this paper is to simulate possoble scenarios of São Paulo’s office market recovering. In 2006, a previous paper that dealt with the same issue was published which the authors propose to analyse here. After eight years, the São Paulo office market is starting a new phase within its cycle. Then, the first part of this paper, as in Rocha-Lima and Alencar (2006), describes the economic scenario in which investment decisions are made for developing office buildings in the Brazilian market. Afterward, the authors simulated both the necessary period of time for investments in the São Paulo office market to recover attractiveness and time for the increase in the occupation rate to absorb the current vacant spaces.

These simulations were carried out using simple linear regressions models using the Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variable to prices and vacancy rates dependent ones.

The authors have found that the vacant space can be fully re-occupied in the beginning of 2021 or mid of 2022, according to the GDP growth rate, and, from this moment on, the demand for new spaces may grow, and, moreover around 2019, investments may become attractive again in this market.

This paper offers an alternative approach for estimating office building scenarios, especially when the database of the market is scarce. It also permits to evaluate an investment strategy for emerging markets within next years, particularly in São Paulo, Brazil.

The purpose of this paper is to clarify whether value created by real estate (RE) companies (tangible intensive firms) can be evaluated better using intellectual capital (IC) elements (human, structural and physical assets) or traditional accounting measures of efficiency (ROIC and profit margins).

Correlations and cross-sectional OLS regressions with robust standard errors were used to find relationships between variables explaining value creation. Data were collected from 2007 to 2011 for Brazilian RE firms. To measure market risk, the authors used a new approach to deal with low liquidity. VAIC and I _j ratios were used as IC proxies even though both have limitations.

IC has a significant inverse relationship with market value. The more valuable companies showed lower levels of IC except for CEE which explains value as much as ROIC. Also, IC does not influence market risk caused by size and leverage and does not explain ROIC.

The limitations of this study result from time and proxy variables. IC was measured by a VAIC model using data from a period of intense volatility. To increase the robustness of the conclusions, other variables should be used as proxies for IC and the results compared. The VAIC model has certain deficiencies in measuring IC.

Managers and investors in the RE sector need to change the way they create value and measure value creation. The low level of HC explaining either ROIC or market value is a signal of low innovation which, combined with high CEE, induces a short-term outlook.

This study opens discussion of IC in the Brazilian RE sector. A new methodology for identifying value creation is necessary for better evaluation and determining the fair value of firms.